Fiery and intriguing local election skirmish in Portarlington and Graiguecullen

If Portlaoise promises to be an epic battle the big Portarlington Graiguecullen electoral area looks set to throw up a fiery electoral skirmish.

Just a dozen candidates have lined up in a contest for six seats to represent an area that is dominated, population-wise, by the two big urban areas of Portarlington and Graiguecullen.

However, despite their growing populations, the towns have yet to make an impact on electoral politics at local level in Laois.
With a population of nearly 10,000, it is remarkable that Sinn Féin's Aidan Mullins is the only sitting councillor who resides in the town.

Just one other Port native, Joey Kennedy, is trying to reclaim lost ground in Port for Fianna Fáil. Aged just 19 he could be a breath of fresh air if elected.

PJ Kelly is another candidate who would focus on the Laois Offaly border town as a source of votes. The Fine Gael councillor was co-opted onto the council after the late Tom Mulhall stepped aside on health grounds. The outgoing councillor and farmer is mainly mining the same ground as his predecessor around Ballybrittas and Vicarstown in the face of little opposition. So, the ball is at his feet in terms of retaining the seat.

The decision by Charlie Hackett to contest for the Green Party was a late and arguably brave call. A son of Minister Pippa Hackett and native of Geashill in Offaly, he may find it a big challenge to persuade Laois people to vote for him as he cycles in search of votes in Port and elsewhere.

The electoral situation gets more cluttered in Stradbally and surrounding communities.

It will be hard to see the outgoing Fianna Fáil representative Paschal McEvoy losing his seat. A Timahoe native, the popular figure has been able to establish a solid base in Stradbally. At the last election he even surprised himself by polling well in Killenard, which some might view as falling into the Portarlington voting orbit.

One candidate who will be relying on a big return from Stradbally is Vivienne Phelan.

Buoyed by the attendance of the now Taoiseach Simon Harris at her campaign launch, Ms Phelan is running for the second time in the area. Her attempt in 2019 was not helped by comments about nurses' pay.

In reality the strong opposition from candidates within Fine Gael and the presence of Paschal McEvoy were deciding factors last time out.

Five years on and Ms Phelan will be hoping that the changed political picture will help her to win a seat for Fine Gael in an area which the party would see as a heartland and where it held a seat until James Deegan retired ahead of the last vote.
The absence of a high profile figure like Tom Mulhall creates a lot of extra space for Ms Phelan in her area. Another boost for her was another loss for FG. More below picture.

Simon Harris launches Vivienne Phelan's campaign in Stradbally before he was Taoiseach.

The decision by Aisling Moran to quit the party gives her the latitude to campaign for votes outside Stradbally right down to Graiguecullen.

Given all this new electoral territory, Ms Phelan must fancy her chances.

The prospects for Cllr Moran will arguably be one of the most interesting dynamics to watch in the local elections across all three Municipal Districts. In some ways her showing will also be a barometer of where Fine Gael is at.

Cllr Moran left Fine Gael last April when the relationships with party colleagues reached breaking point. She also disputed the party's policies on a number of issues locally and nationally. It left the party with just one seat in the Municipal District. Fine Gael had formally ratified Ms Phelan as a new Local Area Representative for the District before Cllr Moran resigned so perhaps it was planning for her departure.

Cllr Moran is based in East Laois and will fancy her chances of retaining local support in an area of the county that's not overcrowded. She will also look to Stradbally for some votes as well as Graiguecullen.

Fine Gael locally and even nationally would view a win for Ms Phelan and loss for Cllr Moran as a major triumph and will likely throw the kitchen sink behind the Stradbally candidate to make this happen.

Independent Ireland is running Patsy Fennell in the district. Based in Timahoe, Mr Fennell could maybe be in the running if there were less candidates in his area. Cllr McEvoy's presence will not help his cause.

The rest of the constituency runs along the Kildare border right down to the boundaries with Carlow and Kilkenny.
It's an area where Cllr Moran would see as a source of votes and is also the territory for the remaining candidates in the field.

There is also the potential for a Sinn Féin surprise result here if votes are shared by Cllr Mullins.

Cllr Padraig Fleming is in the field for Fianna Fáil while Cllr Ben Brennan is once again in the fray to retain a seat he won in defiance of Fianna Fáil in 2009. The challengers in this part of the municipal district are Eoin Barry of the Labour Party and Aaron Kelly of Sinn Féin.

Mr Barry is a veteran of previous election campaigns and will be hoping that 2024 will be his year. He's had Ivana Bacik in the constituency to help break through a ceiling that has proved solid against his ambitions to date.

Election history has often seen the Labour Party benefit from catching a wave of discontent among voters with FF and FG. This trend has diminished however with independents and Sinn Féin better able to tap in to discontent.

If this election was held at the start of 2024 there is a good chance Sinn Féin would have won a second seat. Times change and voters appear to have cooled on SF.

This isn't good news for young Aaron Kelly. However, the party is remarkable at defying the odds and running effective vote management.

If Mr Kelly can secure a sufficient quantity of number ones around Graigue, a big transfer from Cllr Mullins might make the difference.