Met Éireann flags signs of Beast from the East type winter weather #sneachta

Met Éireann has raised an early alert for a weather system similar to the Beast from the East and Storm Emma events in 2018 that brought Ireland to a standstill in the grip of severe winter weather.

In a tweet sent on Friday, February 10 the forecaster issued an early warning as to what could be on the way.

"A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is forecast next week, this can cause the jetstream to weaken and meander more, adding uncertainty to the forecast towards the end of February and increasing the chances of a cooler March," said the forecaster.

Paul Moore is a climatologist with Met Eireann and he explained to RTÉ's Brainstorm that it usually takes two to three weeks for a sudden stratospheric warming event to have an effect.

"Every sudden stratospheric warming is different and not all of them disrupt the tropospheric patterns below. For example, the event in January 2019 did not significantly disrupt the tropospheric patterns below and had no effect on the weather patterns over northwestern Europe.

"The event in February 2018 caused major disruption to the tropospheric patterns below and led directly to the colder than average temperatures in Ireland during February and March 2018, including the very cold outbreak from the east culminating with Storm Emma at the end of February and beginning of March 2018.

Mr Moore said these events increase the likelihood for colder than average weather over northern and north-western Europe for several weeks to a few months after the event, but do not guarantee it.

"Global weather models can usually forecast, quite accurately, what is going to happen in the polar stratosphere one to two weeks in advance, so the upcoming event is highly likely. Forecasting how this event imprints on the tropospheric weather patterns below is much more difficult to resolve, especially prior to the event itself.

"For now, it is unresolved how the upcoming event will affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe. The timing for any impacts, if they do occur, will likely be towards the end of February or the beginning of March," he said.

Met Éireann issued a monthly forecast on Friday, February 10. READ MORE BELOW TWEET.

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is forecast next week, this can cause the Jetstream to weaken and meander more, adding uncertainty to the forecast towards the end of February and increasing the chances of a cooler March

Read up on what our climatologist says about it https://t.co/vGaxSWAfq4

— Met Éireann (@MetEireann) February 10, 2023

Week one from Monday to Sunday, February  13 to 19 is expected to be fairly settled over the coming week. While, there will be some rain or showers about with a few Atlantic fronts making inroads at times, Met Éireann says rainfall totals are expected to average out well below normal with high pressure over Europe still extending its influence in over Ireland. It will also remain a degree or two above normal for mid to late February.

The second week from Monday to Sunday, February 20 to 26 show more unsettled conditions over Europe but with a large area of high pressure becoming established in the Atlantic. The forecaster says this will lead to considerably drier than normal weather, particularly for the west and south of the country.

It says temperatures will be closer to normal this week, though slightly milder than normal over Ulster and Connacht. However, some hard frosts are likely with winter hazards of ice and fog.

Week three covers Monday to Sundy February 27 to March 5. Confidence in the forecast for this period is low. Temperatures are expected to be close to normal in the south of Ireland and very lightly milder than average in the north. It is still predicted to be drier than normal but with much less of a signal than the previous week. Met Éireann expects the high pressure in the Atlantic to have weakened considerably. While it is still marginally high over Ireland, pressure is lower over Biscay and much of Europe.

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Week four brings us through from Monday to Sunday, March 6 to 12. There is a slight signal that it will turn out very slightly wetter than average in the southern parts, whilst it stays a little drier than usual in the north. Temperatures are predicted to be close to the seasonal average. It looks unsettled with low pressure dominating.