Brian Stanley bombshell exploded Laois General Election race but outcome might be predictable

The outcome of the Laois General Election race looked like it was going to be one of the most predictable in Ireland until Saturday night October 12.

Before that date the most interesting thing about the new three-seat constituency was the departure of Charlie Flanagan from the political stage as Fine Gael's TD.

His party had taken the careful step of selecting long-sitting Portlaoise representative Cllr Willie Aird to run in his stead.

There was a little bit of intrigue in Fine Gael who it would select as Cllr Conor Bergin had mounted a big campaign to win the party's nomination but this fizzled out at the Fine Gael convention when Cllr Bergin withdrew in his nomination speech.

With Seán Fleming on the ticket again for Fianna Fáil, the only question to be answered was in what order would the three experienced politicians get elected after voters went to the polls.

However, at 9.41pm on October 12, Brian Stanley lobbed a political grenade that would blow this prediction out of the water. A statement would send Sinn Féin's opponents into a tizzy of excitement nationally and turn the Laois election race on its head with his former party scrambling in panic. MORE BELOW PICTURE.

Brian Stanley and Mary Lou McDonald when both were in the Sinn Féin Party on a visit to Portlaoise.

After 40 years of service to Sinn Féin, he announced he would quit the party and continue to work as a 'Independent Republican TD' on behalf of constituents, who he said 'have always treated me in a fair and respectful manner'.

He would later go on to accuse Sinn Féin of character assination and operating a kangaroo court. It would also be revealed that the outgoing Laois Offaly TD was the subject of a provisional finding of gross misconduct following actions deemed as constituting "sexual harassment".

The Gardaí were called in and is still understood to be reviewing the matter after Sinn Féin passed on a file.

Initially, on the surface, the controversy presented a scenario that would culminate in both Mr Stanley and Sinn Féin suffering. A political carcass always attracts attention and there are always those who will see an opportunity to seize an opportunity from another politician's possible demise.

That political drama and arguably, soap opera, is playing out in Laois at this General Election. When Laois was last a stand alone constituency there were just six candidates and the outcome was known before the votes were counted. It was a dreary campaign which saw Fleming, Flanagan and Stanley easily returned.

Prior to Brian Stanley's resignation, the Laois race was shaping up to be similar with the only change being Aird for Flanagan.

But the Sinn Féin crisis has inflated the field with candidates entering the race at the last minute.

If nothing else, Sinn Féin and Mr Stanley are to be thanked for injecting a degree of unpredictability into the race that has made it a much healthier democratic process where all the candidates are fighting hard for votes.

This competition also puts voters in a much more powerful position with the candidates, especially the favourites.
All this being said, there are frontrunners who will be involved at the business end of the Election Count in Portlaoise after polling day on November 29.

Seán Fleming enters the race for Fianna Fáil as one of the favourites to retain his seat in Leinster House. He contested his first General Election in 1997 and never lost his seat even on the bad days for his party.

The only intrigue around Fianna Fáil was whether they would run a second candidate to seize on the Sinn Féin / Stanley row. In the end, HQ added Austin Stack to the ticket but his selection just three weeks out leaves him with little chance to cause a shock.

As discussed earlier, Cllr Willie Aird is a safe bet for Fine Gael. It would be a seismic political shift if the Portlaoise-based farmer did not win the seat on his first attempt. Fine Gael is strong in Laois and Cllr Aird is popular in rural and urban areas.

So with two seats called, what fate will befall Mr Stanley?

Ultimately and not unpredictably, the outgoing TD has the edge on survival. After all he has built a political career around defying the odds and his opponents. The biggest threat to him is the success of Sinn Féin nationally and how its candidate Maria McCormack fares.

The party has steadied in the polls since hitting the headlines over Dep Stanley and other controversies. Mary Lou McDonald has visited Laois twice to help her win votes and. If Ms McCormack takes some of his old Sinn Féin votes, he could be in trouble. 

Ironically, Sinn Féin might not benefit in Laois if this comes to pass. The field contains an independent who could squeeze through the gap. MORE BELOW PICTURE.

Mary Lou McDonald at the Sinn Féin General election in Portlaoise with Laois candidate Maria McCormack.

Cllr Aisling Moran is contesting her first General Election. The former Fine Gael councillor fits the bill of many independents running in the General Election. They are outspoken on spending of public money and promise to speak freely for their constituents not restrained by party rules.

Cllr Moran has already carved out a reputation for this on Laois County Council where she has drawn ire especially from former party colleagues in Fine Gael.

Oddly enough, it could be Fine Gael votes that could give her a chance to unseat Dep Stanley. It would be a result that would not displease her former party colleagues. If she did make it to the Dáil and Fine Gael needed independent TDs to form a Government it's almost certain she would be on their shortlist.

There are others in the field that deserve a mention. MORE BELOW PICTURE.

With the Green Party unpopular with farmers, candidate Rosie Palmer is facing an uphill struggle in a rural county like Laois.

However, she has gathered electoral experience at the local elections and worked as parliamentary assistant to Minister of State Pippa Hackett so is familiar with the political system and how it can deliver for voters. Ms Hackett is showing no signs of leaving politics and could be a friend to Laois if the Greens make it back to Government.

Elaine Mullaly has run a big canvas but remains relatively unknown outside Portarlington though is popular on social media for sometimes controversial views on vaccines and other matters.

Mary Hande of Aontú's late arrival on the scene will not help her cause though she's likely poll respectably due to the performance of Aontú leader Peadar Toibin.

Ken Mooney of People Before Profit has run a low profile campaign and is not a serious contender.

Two last-minute candidates to enter the field were former Fianna Fáil General Election candidate Pauline Flanagan and Jason Lynch.

Ms Flanagan has fallen out with Fianna Fáil over local election candidate selection. A former county councillor and community activist in Portlaoise she has contested two local elections and one general election. It is difficult to see her contesting for one of the seats in this campaign.

Mr Lynch is a Portlaoise native who was born in St Brigid's. A paramedic, he hopes voters will help him cause a shock. Success for him might be a respectable vote in Portlaoise that might be the foundation of a tilt at the next local election.